Thinking out loud. No support for it at current levels - $350. If it can’t hold here seems like next stop could be around $320. But if it can’t hold there Aug ‘21 at $275 is the next stop.
I watched UNH build a base around $300 and pulled the trigger only to see it go off a cliff and trade down to $240, thank GOD for Buffett, he came in a two weeks later with $1.5 billion long and saved me. I won’t be that lucky twice.
But now I’m a little more gun shy about going long on a position that’s suspended in mid-air.
Your other post about the markets being on a sugar high made sense to me, we have NVDA today, sounds like they’ll beat (but warn?) and probably get .25 from the Fed in September.
After that this bull run could be out of gas which is why I’ll keep my eye on ADBE, but not go long now. If your thesis from your other post is correct 2 months from now this market could be a kicked in the balls fire sale.
Pretty solid take, cheers for the comment! I have a position in ADBE since 2022 and it made sense to me to add here, I think I described it in the text - hopefully clear enough. The view via macro is understandable and it's possible there will be a lot of stocks on sale in the Q4 2025. Let's be sharks for the next opportunities! :)
The AI narrative is powerful, but I believe the real winners will be those who combine innovation with durable economics. I wrote about this in my recent review — showing how thesis-driven investing captured both AI and energy transitions. Happy to share here
Thinking out loud. No support for it at current levels - $350. If it can’t hold here seems like next stop could be around $320. But if it can’t hold there Aug ‘21 at $275 is the next stop.
I watched UNH build a base around $300 and pulled the trigger only to see it go off a cliff and trade down to $240, thank GOD for Buffett, he came in a two weeks later with $1.5 billion long and saved me. I won’t be that lucky twice.
But now I’m a little more gun shy about going long on a position that’s suspended in mid-air.
Your other post about the markets being on a sugar high made sense to me, we have NVDA today, sounds like they’ll beat (but warn?) and probably get .25 from the Fed in September.
After that this bull run could be out of gas which is why I’ll keep my eye on ADBE, but not go long now. If your thesis from your other post is correct 2 months from now this market could be a kicked in the balls fire sale.
Like a shark, I’ll be circling.
Pretty solid take, cheers for the comment! I have a position in ADBE since 2022 and it made sense to me to add here, I think I described it in the text - hopefully clear enough. The view via macro is understandable and it's possible there will be a lot of stocks on sale in the Q4 2025. Let's be sharks for the next opportunities! :)
Adobe is getting cheap, quite attractive to be honest!! Customer delight is certainly not the reason behind it reoccurring revenue, its more like customer captivity. Yet, I believe at prices below $300, it presents good entry point which kinda provides a cushion against this melting ice cube. https://open.substack.com/pub/latebloomr/p/adobe-adbe-adobe-a-cash-generating?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5bgci5
I have CRM for 1 quarter. recently started to add ADBE
I also likes ADBE, just CRM , it is a recently undervalued CRM company.
Do you have positions in ADBE or CRM?
Let’s Connect. I love your content.
The AI narrative is powerful, but I believe the real winners will be those who combine innovation with durable economics. I wrote about this in my recent review — showing how thesis-driven investing captured both AI and energy transitions. Happy to share here
https://thesisrationale.substack.com/p/annual-investment-review-20242025?r=48cf8j&utm_medium=ios