Thank you Telvin, really appreciate it! As far as CRM goes - I own it, I hate it, and I believe in it. :) I did a deep dive analysis before which you can check out, right now it's a hot candidate for the next DCFriday, so stay tuned! :)
Thank you for sharing Leslie! I believe the assumptions in the model are sound and there's objectively a solid upside. Let me know what your friend thinks! :)
I think ServiceNow's insiders would agree with your assessment. Why aren’t more SAAS insiders showing the same level of misprice conviction we’re seeing from $NOW executive leadership?
CEO $3M open-market buying is news.
Leadership choosing not to sell, while the company leans into its largest buyback authorization in recent history, is evidence.
This insider-signal cluster is one of the most credible we’ve seen in recent enterprise software history, and it ranks in the top tier of credibility in the classification taxonomy.
The (Chief People and AI Enablement Officer) choosing not to sell, from the vantage point closest to the operational truth of human-AI workflow dynamics, is the signal most people missed.
Very impressive. That said, the linear slow fade is the norm in dcf models. I don't think reality, from a share price perspective, works that way. Either growth names are able to sustain or reaccelerate top line growth - and we see some who do- allowing expensive looking winners to keep winning - or the market gets whiff of any sustainable deceleration and the shares quickly tank. My bet is that NOW proves to sustain and even reaccelerate its top line growth given management foresight and the recent acquisitions for agent orchestration et al. So would expect to see a floor at a relatively high level for the multiple, before expanding again. While the forecast of linear fade in the dcf shows valuation upside, in my view, if that's accurate the stock will fall well below what looks like fair value in the model. So false comfort, in my view.
This is a wonderful analysis, I would like to know your thoughts on Salesforce too
Thank you Telvin, really appreciate it! As far as CRM goes - I own it, I hate it, and I believe in it. :) I did a deep dive analysis before which you can check out, right now it's a hot candidate for the next DCFriday, so stay tuned! :)
I will definitely be looking into the deep dive and waiting for its DCF valuation. Hoping to start positions in both soon, I appreciate your work!
Whole analysis of NOW should be up next week, so CRM should come right after that. Thank you and looking forward to discuss with you once it's up! :)
Sent to my friend who is not on here, $NOW is his largest holding by far, might cheer him up a bit....
Thank you for sharing Leslie! I believe the assumptions in the model are sound and there's objectively a solid upside. Let me know what your friend thinks! :)
Will do, very good article btw...
I think ServiceNow's insiders would agree with your assessment. Why aren’t more SAAS insiders showing the same level of misprice conviction we’re seeing from $NOW executive leadership?
CEO $3M open-market buying is news.
Leadership choosing not to sell, while the company leans into its largest buyback authorization in recent history, is evidence.
This insider-signal cluster is one of the most credible we’ve seen in recent enterprise software history, and it ranks in the top tier of credibility in the classification taxonomy.
The (Chief People and AI Enablement Officer) choosing not to sell, from the vantage point closest to the operational truth of human-AI workflow dynamics, is the signal most people missed.
https://open.substack.com/pub/junkasspos/p/the-signal-retail-investors-missed?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2upe9x
Great article once again. Looking forward for the next one!
Do you consider that huge SBC being particulary good idea being added to the fcf ? Doubling the sbc would add even bigger fcf making it even cheaper?
Thank you
Great analysis as always. Much appreciated. The anti-SaaS narrative underestimates the difficulty of replacing such highly embedded systems.
Very impressive. That said, the linear slow fade is the norm in dcf models. I don't think reality, from a share price perspective, works that way. Either growth names are able to sustain or reaccelerate top line growth - and we see some who do- allowing expensive looking winners to keep winning - or the market gets whiff of any sustainable deceleration and the shares quickly tank. My bet is that NOW proves to sustain and even reaccelerate its top line growth given management foresight and the recent acquisitions for agent orchestration et al. So would expect to see a floor at a relatively high level for the multiple, before expanding again. While the forecast of linear fade in the dcf shows valuation upside, in my view, if that's accurate the stock will fall well below what looks like fair value in the model. So false comfort, in my view.
How about revenue growth from year 11st - 20th ?